Macro Environment
Inflation regime
ELEVATED3.4%
Consumer confidence
WEAK68.2
Discretionary spending
SOFTENING−1.2%
Luxury resilience
HOLDING+2.1%
Value trade-down signal
ACTIVE+4.3%
Consumer Verticals
Luxury
+2.1%
Price inelastic. Scarcity rewarded.
LVMHHER
Value
+4.3%
Trade-down accelerating.
WMTDG
Food & Bev
+0.4%
Private label shift active.
COSTKHC
Apparel
-1.8%
Mid-market squeezed hard.
NKEGPS
Wellness
+1.6%
Premiumization holding.
ULTAHIMS
Travel
→ Meridian Select
→ Meridian Select
Historical Playbook — Current Environment
Hermès2008–09 + 2022 INFLATION
Raised prices 5–7% annually through both downturns. Doubled down on scarcity and waitlists. Refused wholesale dilution. Revenue fell just 3% in 2009 vs industry −18%.
→ Founder lesson: Luxury customers punish dilution more than price. Protect exclusivity above all else.
Dollar General2008–10 RECESSION
Accelerated store openings during competitor retreat. Expanded consumables to 75%+ of revenue. Captured trade-down from grocery and mid-market. Stock +60% during recession.
→ Founder lesson: Expand SKU depth in consumables and secure locations while competitors pull back.
Chipotle2022 INFLATION SPIKE
Took 13% price increases while owning the quality narrative. Digital mix reached 37%. Margins recovered faster than all QSR peers.
→ Founder lesson: Price increases land when you own the quality story and have a direct digital relationship.
Strategic Signals
01The middle is collapsing. Mid-market consumer brands are losing share to both ends. Pick a lane — premium or value — and commit fully.POSITIONING
02Luxury brands that raised prices in 2022–23 outperformed those that held. Investors reward pricing power over volume growth.LUXURY
03Private label share at a decade high across F&B. Differentiate on brand or win on distribution — doing both is a capital trap.F&B
04Health and wellness premiumization holding under inflation. Customers cut entertainment before self-care. Strong recession resilience.WELLNESS
05Direct digital relationships are the single biggest differentiator in pricing power. Brands with owned channels recover margins 2x faster.DIGITAL